Potential shifts in climate zones under a future global warming scenario using soil moisture classification

Abstract Climate zones fundamentally shape the patterns of terrestrial environment and human habitation. How global warming alters their current distribution is an important question that has yet to be properly addressed. Using root-layer soil moisture as indicator, this study investigates potential future changes in climate with perturbed parameter ensemble projections by HadGEM3-GC3.05 model under CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. The total area drylands (including arid, semiarid, subhumid zones) can potentially expand 10.5% (ensemble range 0.6–19.0%) relative historical period 1976–2005 end 21st century. This rate dryland expansion smaller than estimate using ratio between annual precipitation evapotranspiration (19.2%, 6.7–33.1%). However, regional rates over mid-high latitudes much greater atmospheric indicators alone. result mainly because frozen thawing accelerated Arctic greening polar warming, which detected but not from atmosphere-only indices. areal consists 7.7% (–8.3 23.6%) semiarid zone growth 9.5% (3.1–20.0%) at expense 2.3% (–10.4 7.4%) 12.6% (–29.5 2.0%) contraction arid humid zones. risks appear peripheries subtype across drylands. Potential alteration traditional zone, such those Amazon region, highlights accompanying vulnerability for local ecosystems.